If you remember the 2024 campaign, Trump teased two major changes to Social Security and the tax system. And it looks like one of those ideas is now halfway there toward reality.

Right now, about 40% of Social Security recipients (including retirees and people with disabilities) still pay federal income taxes on their benefits. Trump, however, vowed to end that, stating that “Seniors should not pay taxes on Social Security, and they won’t.” ✅

It’s a promise that sounds simple, bold, and wildly popular. But, as always in Washington, the fine print is where things get messy.

For most of American history, Social Security benefits weren’t taxed at all. That, unfortunately, changed in the 1980s when Congress, in a bipartisan effort signed by Ronald Reagan, began taxing a portion of benefits to help stabilize the system.

Trump’s idea is to tear that policy out at the roots, leading some experts to slightly panic. After all, some warned it could push Social Security’s trust fund toward insolvency even faster. 😬

So, to counter that criticism, Trump floated a second idea — funding Social Security using America’s oil and gas wealth. He had previously pointed to Saudi Arabia as proof that energy revenue can bankroll government programs without borrowing. Since the US, he argued, has even more beneath its soil, it doesn’t sound completely unrealistic.

Big idea? Sure. Realistic policy blueprint? Not quite yet.

So where does that leave seniors heading into 2026? 🤔

Thanks to the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” passed in July 2025, nearly 90% of Social Security beneficiaries are expected to stop paying federal income taxes on their benefits next year — but not because the taxes were officially eliminated.

Instead, the law created an expanded tax deduction for Americans over 65, effectively reducing what many seniors owe.

Call it a workaround, not a revolution.

The Tax Policy Center estimates that while many retirees will see lower tax bills, roughly half will still owe something. And that “senior bonus”? It quietly expires in 2028. 💸

Again, temporary relief, not a permanent solution.

As for the oil-and-gas-funded Social Security rescue? So far, the Trump administration hasn’t moved a proper proposal through Congress. Which means the program’s long-term financial outlook remains… bleak for now.

Regardless, Trump’s promise to untax Social Security is slowly but surely materializing — but through tax deductions, not structural reform. And the dramatic energy-funded bailout remains more campaign myth than budget reality. ⚠️

So, long story short, 2026 may bring a little more breathing room — just not the political miracle some were promised.